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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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