A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
